The 2017 Election Arithmetic and its consequences
This is an email, not a blog post. It’s to notify you of a new blog post on my Ephems blog, at http://www.barder.com/the-2017-election-arithmetic-and-its-consequences/. In that post I offer an analysis of the arithmetic underlying yesterday’s election results, from which I conclude that the Conservatives with the support of the DUP (Democratic Unionist Party, the right-wing Northern Ireland party) would probably muster an overall majority of 9 in the new house of commons, whereas Labour, even if enjoying the conditional and informal support of all the other centre-left parties, would struggle to muster an overall majority of 1, and might not even achieve that. So the likeliest outcome looks like a minority Conservative government with DUP support, probably but not necessarily led by Mrs May (the prime minister need not be the leader of his or her party, so Mrs May could in theory be replaced as prime minister by a Conservative MP enjoying broad cross-party respect and without the need for the Conservatives to elect a new party leader).
In the post I question the need for Mrs May’s visit to the Palace today, a visit that falsely implied that she needed and received the Queen’s permission to form a new government — a shabby stunt, if so; and I point out that Jeremy Corbyn might have stood a better chance of being asked to form a minority government if he had discussed with the other centre-left party leaders before the election the possibility of a Labour minority government with “confidence and supply” support (not a coalition) from the other progressive parties, a precaution regrettably not taken because of Labour tribalism.
Please visit http://www.barder.com/the-2017-election-arithmetic-and-its-consequences/ to read the post and please write your comments, objections or corrections there, not in reply to this email. Only there can you read the comments of others on the blog post.
Greetings to you all from a sunny south-west London and from a constituency, targeted by the Conservatives, whose Labour MP has just more than doubled her previous majority with the help of a tireless and energetic support team and a first-class personal and parliamentary record –
9 June 2017
Note: The post is an edited version of a post on LabourList at http://labourlist.org/2017/06/shaky-mays-numbers-may-be-enough-but-corbyn-should-have-sounded-out-the-minor-parties-when-the-campaign-kicked-off/. Please also see my clarifying comment on that post at http://disq.us/p/1jeyyng.